Weekly Macro Overview
Week of 29 Mar 2026
🌐 Macro Environment
Moderately Favourable
Liquidity
Expanding
Risk Appetite
Neutral
Real Economy
Strengthening
Key Insight
Markets are supported by strong liquidity, but elevated volatility and crowded positioning create fragile conditions.
Liquidity
Liquidity surge driving market support
- $1T has flowed out of Fed reverse repo into markets over four weeks
- Money supply and Treasury liquidity conditions remain highly supportive
Implication: Liquidity is providing strong support to risk assets in the near term.
Risk Appetite
Stable markets with elevated hedging costs
- Equity markets remain resilient despite sharp increases in volatility across assets
- Volatility measures have surged to stressed levels without corresponding price declines
Implication: Markets are maintaining risk exposure while paying heavily for protection, signalling unstable positioning.
Real Economy
Growth remains resilient with sector divergence
- Business activity and consumption remain strong across most indicators
- Housing activity weakens significantly as rates rise
Implication: Economic momentum supports markets, but divergence limits broader expansion.
Positioning
Crowding builds across multiple asset classes
- Extreme long positioning across crypto, energy, and agriculture
- Divergences emerging between speculative and commercial positioning
Implication: Elevated crowding increases the risk of sharp reversals.
Chart of the Week
GVZ (Gold Volatility)
Risk Appetite
At a multi-year extreme (historically high) with strong momentum (+37.0% over 4 weeks)
Signal: ↓4w: +37.0%
GVZ (Gold Volatility)